Oxford Economics' Fenner Sees USDCNY at 6.5 End of 2021

The video discusses the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) potential interventions in currency speculation, predicting a future depreciation of the yuan due to a stronger US dollar. It highlights factors like reserve requirements and market inflows affecting economic forecasts. The impact of manufacturing on economic growth is analyzed, noting challenges like input prices and supply chain disruptions. The video concludes with trends in consumption and private investment, emphasizing the role of vaccination and confidence in economic recovery.

What is one of the measures the PBOC might implement to address currency appreciation?

• Raising reserve requirements

• Lowering interest rates

• Increasing government spending

• Reducing export tariffs

What is the expected impact of stronger U.S. growth on the renminbi?

• Appreciation of the renminbi

• Depreciation of the renminbi

• No change in the renminbi value

• Increase in Chinese exports

What economic factor is expected to narrow between China and the U.S.?

• Interest rate

• Trade deficit

• Inflation rate

• Growth differential

What is a notable short-term headwind affecting China's manufacturing sector?

• Decreasing demand

• Supply chain disruptions

• Lower export tariffs

• Rising labor costs

What will be crucial for future growth in China's economy?

• Reduction in foreign investments

• Vaccination and consumer confidence

• Increased government regulation

• Higher export tariffs