UBS's Gordon on U.S. Dollar, Oil Prices

The video discusses the current economic outlook, focusing on the dollar's stability and potential strengthening due to fiscal stimulus and rising real yields in the US. It examines the impact of real yields on markets, highlighting the Fed's role and the challenges for emerging markets and commodities. The discussion also covers the reflation trade, oil demand, and production constraints, predicting a tightening oil market and higher prices.

What is the expected trend for the US dollar by mid-next year?

• It will collapse.

• It will strengthen slightly.

• It will remain steady.

• It will weaken significantly.

How does the Fed's approach to inflation affect emerging markets?

• It stabilizes their currencies.

• It boosts their economic growth.

• It has no impact.

• It creates challenges for those with current account deficits.

What is the main reason for the recent movements in nominal yields?

• Global economic slowdown.

• Increased Treasury issuance.

• Fed's buying exceeding Treasury issuance.

• Rising unemployment rates.

What is the expected trend for oil demand by the first quarter of next year?

• It will remain below pre-pandemic levels.

• It will decrease significantly.

• It will exceed pre-pandemic levels.

• It will return to pre-pandemic levels.

What factor is constraining the snapback in oil production growth in the US?

• Decreased global demand.

• Increased OPEC production.

• Slim capital expenditure in shale production.

• High capital expenditure in shale production.