MLIV Pulse: What's the Biggest Tail-Risk for Markets in the Second Half

The video discusses the potential for an economic slowdown towards the end of the year, with a 50% chance of a recession in the US. Geopolitical tensions, such as those between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Iran, and issues in Taiwan, are highlighted as significant risks. These tensions could lead to increased energy prices and complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts. In Europe, recession and sovereign risks pose additional challenges.

What is the estimated probability of a recession in the US over the next couple of years?

• 25%

• 50%

• 75%

• 100%

Which geopolitical issue is NOT mentioned as a concern in the video?

• Russia and Ukraine conflict

• Tensions between Israel and Iran

• North Korea's nuclear program

• Taiwan issue in Asia

How might the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affect global markets?

• Decrease in energy prices

• No impact on energy prices

• Increase in energy prices

• Stabilization of energy prices

What is a major constraint for Europe mentioned in the video?

• Sovereign related risks

• Political instability

• Lack of technological innovation

• High inflation rates

What makes the Federal Reserve's job more challenging according to the video?

• Rising energy prices

• Decreasing interest rates

• Stable economic growth

• Low unemployment rates