Guggenheim's Minerd: Hard to Argue US Not in Recession

The video discusses the market's reaction to a basis point rate hike and a significant GDP print, highlighting the NASDAQ 100's rise. It explores the Fed's potential pivot and its impact on tech stocks, suggesting a less hawkish stance could benefit rates. The conversation shifts to a debate on whether the economy is in a recession, with arguments based on leading economic indicators and the labor market's role in defining a recession.

What is the significance of the NASDAQ 100's recent rise?

• It suggests a hawkish Fed policy.

• It indicates a decline in tech stocks.

• It shows a market driven by interest rates.

• It reflects a decrease in GDP.

How does the market perceive the Federal Reserve's current stance?

• The market anticipates a less aggressive approach from the Fed.

• The market is indifferent to the Fed's actions.

• The market believes the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance.

• The market expects the Fed to increase interest rates significantly.

What is the main reason for the relief rally in the NASDAQ?

• A decrease in tech stock prices.

• The belief that the Fed will be less hawkish.

• An increase in the Dow Jones index.

• A significant drop in GDP.

What is one indicator mentioned that suggests a recession?

• Rising tech stock prices.

• Four consecutive down prints in leading economic indicators.

• An increase in GDP.

• A strong labor market.

According to the discussion, what defines a recession?

• A contraction in economic activity.

• A rise in tech stock prices.

• A strong labor market.

• An increase in GDP.