KPMG's Swonk Expects Some Downward Surprises on Jobs

The transcript discusses the labor market's strength and potential downward revisions, highlighting the ADP data's role in understanding wage gains and inflation. It also examines the impact of external factors like California floods on payroll data and concludes with the Federal Reserve's approach to controlling inflation and rate hikes.

What has been the trend in the labor market over the past year?

• Fluctuating with no clear trend

• Stable with no surprises

• Consistently weak with downward surprises

• Consistently strong with upward surprises

How does the ADP data differ from official payroll forecasts?

• It is more detailed than official data

• It is less reliable than official data

• It is independent and not a forecast

• It is a forecast of official payrolls

What is a major concern for the Fed related to inflation?

• Inflation tied to currency exchange rates

• Inflation tied to government spending

• Inflation tied to global oil prices

• Inflation tied to wage-driven demand

What external factor affected the ADP report in January?

• Drought in Texas

• California floods

• Hurricane in Florida

• Snowstorm in New York

What is the Fed's current threshold for slowing down rate hikes?

• Non-existent due to deflation

• Moderate due to fluctuating inflation

• High due to entrenched inflation

• Low due to stable inflation