Goldman Revises US Recession Chances Down to 15%

The video discusses the optimistic economic outlook by Goldman Sachs, which has revised down the chances of a US recession to 15%, contrasting with Bloomberg's 60% consensus. It highlights potential consumer risks due to the end of student loan forgiveness by the Biden administration. The labor market is cooling, with wage inflation showing progress, influencing Goldman's forecast change.

What is the revised probability of a US recession according to some economists, compared to the Bloomberg consensus?

• 10% vs 40%

• 20% vs 70%

• 30% vs 50%

• 15% vs 60%

What major event is expected to pose a challenge to consumers in the upcoming quarters?

• New tax regulations

• Increase in fuel prices

• End of student loan forgiveness

• Rise in housing costs

What was the basis for Goldman's change in their economic forecast?

• Fluctuations in stock market

• Changes in government policy

• Recent labor market data

• New trade agreements

How is the labor market described in the recent data?

• Falling off a cliff

• Cooling slightly

• Rapidly expanding

• Stagnant

What trend is observed in average hourly earnings according to the recent data?

• Highest in a decade

• Increasing steadily

• Lowest in over a year

• Unchanged from last year