Citi Has S&P 500 Bear-Case Scenario of 5,100 on Tariff Risks

The video discusses the challenges faced by markets due to limited capacity to handle price rises and the impact of tariffs. It analyzes earnings growth forecasts, particularly for the US market and specific sectors like the MAG 7. The potential effects of tariffs and retaliation are explored, highlighting the need for diversification and careful stock picking. The video presents bear and bull case scenarios for the market, emphasizing the importance of being broadly diversified to mitigate risks.

What is the expected earnings growth for the US market according to the forecast?

• 15%

• 13%

• 20%

• 10%

How might broader scale tariffs affect the earnings growth?

• Keep it at 13%

• Reduce it to 6%

• Eliminate it completely

• Increase it to 20%

What is the bear case scenario for the SP mentioned in the video?

• 5500

• 6900

• 6000

• 5100

Why is diversification recommended in the current market scenario?

• To focus on US stocks

• To avoid asymmetric risks

• To concentrate on one sector

• To increase short-term gains

What is suggested as a potential benefit of the current market complexities?

• A good year for stock picking

• Higher inflation rates

• Increased market volatility

• Lower investment returns