'Maybe Too Much Fear' on Yield Curve, Says Shah

The video discusses the current state of the yield curve, noting a flattening trend but dismissing fears of an imminent recession. It highlights concerns about low inflation and the impact of globalization and technology. The discussion suggests that a recession is not expected until 2020, with Morgan Stanley predicting it for that year. The video also covers investment strategies for sovereign bonds, recommending selling short and buying long. It concludes with an outlook on rising interest rates and inflation, suggesting that recent data indicates inflation is starting to rise, contrary to the Fed's cautious stance.

What is the current state of the yield curve according to the discussion?

• It is inverting, indicating an imminent recession.

• It is flattening, but not inverting, suggesting no immediate recession.

• It is steepening, indicating strong economic growth.

• It is stable, with no significant changes.

What are some factors mentioned that contribute to the current economic situation?

• Rising interest rates and increased consumer spending.

• Decreasing unemployment and high GDP growth.

• Globalization and low inflation.

• High inflation and technological stagnation.

When does Morgan Stanley predict a recession might occur?

• Towards the end of 2018.

• In 2020.

• In 2022.

• In the first half of 2018.

What is the expected trend for interest rates according to the discussion?

• Interest rates are expected to fluctuate wildly.

• Interest rates are expected to rise.

• Interest rates are expected to remain stable.

• Interest rates are expected to decrease.

What is the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation as mentioned in the discussion?

• The Fed is aggressively raising interest rates to combat inflation.

• The Fed believes inflation will decrease.

• The Fed is cautious about inflation despite recent data.

• The Fed is unconcerned about inflation.