Moody’s Analytics’s Cochrane Sees Fed Cutting by 25BPS in September and December

The video discusses the current economic uncertainties, particularly focusing on the impact of new tariffs from the Trump administration. It highlights how these tariffs have increased economic uncertainty and affected the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. The discussion includes potential changes in interest rates and the increased risk of a recession in the US economy. The video concludes with a forecast of possible Fed policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, in response to these economic challenges.

What was the initial expectation for the US economy before the new tariffs were announced?

• A steady improvement

• A complete economic collapse

• A significant economic downturn

• A rapid economic growth

How have the new tariffs affected business confidence and investment?

• They have had no impact

• They have increased business confidence

• They have led to a surge in manufacturing

• They have weakened business confidence and investment

What is a potential consequence of the weakened manufacturing activity?

• Stable economic growth

• Increased hiring

• Slower hiring or job cuts

• Higher manufacturing output

What change in Fed policy is being considered due to the increased economic risks?

• Cutting interest rates

• Maintaining current interest rates

• Increasing interest rates

• Eliminating interest rates

When is the Fed expected to potentially make a 25 basis point cut?

• In June

• In September

• In November

• In January