U.S. Economy in Sub-Trend Growth, Not Outright Recession: BofA's Meyer

The video discusses the current state of the U.S. housing market, highlighting improvements due to lower interest rates. It provides economic growth projections for Q3 and Q4, noting a sub-2% growth rate and a manufacturing slowdown affecting services. Key indicators for a potential economic downturn are identified, including the yield curve and credit spreads. The labor market is analyzed, with slowing job creation and reduced work weeks as early caution signs. A spike in jobless claims could signal a shift from sub-trend growth to recession, though this has not yet occurred.

What is the projected growth rate for Q4, and what factors contribute to this projection?

What does a spike in initial jobless claims indicate about the economy?