U.S., Global Recessions Likely With 25% China Tariffs: Economist Ahya

The video discusses the complexity of tariff discussions, highlighting the impact of global growth slowdown and reduced Chinese purchases on US commodity prices. It explores the potential escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, considering the risks of a 25% tariff on imports from China. The discussion suggests that such escalation could lead to a recession in the US and a global economic slowdown, with growth potentially falling below 2.5% by 2020.

What factors are contributing to the slowdown in global growth?

What assumptions are made in the base case regarding a potential trade deal?

What could be the consequences if trade tensions escalate further?

How might the trade tensions between the US and China affect the global economy?

What is the potential impact of a 25% tariff on imports from China?