Are We Headed for a Global Recession?

The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center predicts a 65% chance of a global recession affecting the US by next year, countering more optimistic forecasts from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. The center, known for its mixed track record, has made accurate predictions in the past, such as the 2008 subprime crisis, but has also had misses. David Jerome, the grandson of the center's founder, argues that global economic weakness, particularly in Europe and Japan, will drag the US economy down. He highlights the significance of US exports, which constitute 13% of GDP, indicating the growing impact of global markets on the US economy.

What are the credentials of David Jerome's grandson in relation to the forecasting center?

How does the global economic situation affect the US economy according to the predictions?