Summers Sees Real Risk of US Recession Next Year

The transcript discusses the probability of a recession, estimating a high chance within the next two years. It highlights that negative growth in the first two quarters may not suffice to declare a recession, as it's driven by demand affecting inventories and imports. The speaker suggests a significant risk of recession this year and an even greater risk next year, with odds above 75%. The potential recession is compared to past events, like the 1982 recession and the 2000 bubble burst, but is not expected to be as severe as the great financial crisis.

How does the speaker compare the potential recession to past recessions like those in 1982 and during the great financial crisis?

Evaluate responses using AI:

OFF

What historical event does the speaker reference to suggest a model for the potential economic situation?

Evaluate responses using AI:

OFF