Bloomberg Intelligence's 'Equity Market Minute' 10/21/2019

Gina Martin Adams from Bloomberg Intelligence discusses the potential impact of recessions on U.S. stocks, highlighting that historical evidence shows recessions don't have to be catastrophic. The analysis includes market corrections in the S&P 500 since the 1920s, showing that downdrafts during bull markets are less severe than during bear markets. The discussion also covers valuation evidence, indicating that investors are already positioned for significant risk, with the equity risk premium at a high level. Historical data suggests positive returns following such conditions, implying that recession risks are already factored into equity prices.

What historical evidence did the speaker examine regarding recessions?

How do downdrafts during bull markets compare to those during bear markets?

What does the equity risk premium indicate about current market conditions?

What has been the average return in the 12 months following historical experiences of recession?

What positioning around recession is already embedded in equity prices according to the speaker?