Summers Sees Consensus Building on U.S. Recession Call

The video discusses the concept of a soft landing, aiming to avoid a recession. A Bloomberg survey shows increasing skepticism among economists, with the risk of recession rising from 15% to 27.5% over a few months. Historically, the U.S. has faced recessions when inflation was above 4% and unemployment below 4%. The video highlights the challenges of avoiding recession due to overheating, policy delays, and supply shocks. The consensus among banks and economists is shifting towards expecting a recession in the next couple of years.

What factors are mentioned as contributing to the challenges of achieving a soft landing?

What is the predicted likelihood of a recession in the next couple of years according to the text?