Markets Are Right to Price In Higher Probability of Recession, Pimco's Wilding Says

The video discusses the conflicting signals from the bond market and retail sales, suggesting that while retail sales appear strong, they may overestimate the underlying economic trend due to factors like Amazon Prime Day. The bond market, with its yield curve, indicates a higher probability of recession, supported by historical data. The discussion also highlights weaknesses in manufacturing and global trade sectors, and the potential spillover into stronger sectors like consumer spending. Early signs of a labor market slowdown are noted, raising concerns about a broader economic downturn.

How do retail sales figures relate to the underlying trends in the US economy?

What special factors contributed to the retail sales print in July?

What does the bond market indicate about the current economic situation?

What is the significance of the yield curve in predicting recessions?

What early indications suggest a slowdown in the labor market?