Societe Generale Determines 'Fair Value' for Treasuries

The video discusses a fair value model for US 10-year treasury yields, initially set at 2.85% based on GDP and inflation. Adjustments for global forces like ECB and Japan's QE lower it to 1.95%. Despite market detachment from fundamentals, a paradigm shift is needed for significant yield changes. The US differs from other regions due to higher inflation and no current QE. Risk scenarios include further QE from Europe and Japan, potentially affecting US yields. The call is for yields to decline to 1.25% by Q3 due to Brexit uncertainties, with a possible rise to 1.50% by year-end.

What factors are typically considered when creating a fair value model for treasury yields?

How did the speaker adjust the fair value model to account for global forces?

What concerns does the speaker express regarding the current market conditions?

What does the speaker identify as a key difference between the US and other global markets?

What is the speaker's prediction for the 10-year treasury yields by the end of Q3?