Business Cycle Has Peaked in India: Nomura's Varma

The transcript discusses the current economic situation, highlighting strong services and investments as positive tailwinds. However, private consumption and imports are weaker than expected. Looking ahead, global slowdown and El Nino pose risks, potentially turning tailwinds into headwinds. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is optimistic about growth but anticipates a shift in focus towards supporting growth as inflation decreases. The RBI may start policy easing by October, with a cumulative 75 basis point reduction expected.

What are the differing GDP growth forecasts between the RBI and the speaker?

What factors are expected to shift the RBI's focus towards growth?