Trade War Is Murdering the Expansion, Says AMP Capital’s Naeimi

The transcript discusses the high probability of a US-led recession and how different parts of the market, like bonds, have priced in these risks. Central banks are trying to cushion the impact of falling growth and trade uncertainties, but their efforts may not be enough. The trade war is seen as a significant threat to economic expansion, and central banks may be limited in their ability to respond effectively. The possibility of negative treasury yields in the US is also explored, with global bond yields converging to low levels. The discussion highlights the challenges faced by central banks in stimulating real economic activity amid ongoing trade tensions.

What are the potential risks associated with a recession as discussed in the text?

How do central banks typically respond to economic downturns, and what challenges do they face in the current environment?

What impact does the trade war have on global economic growth according to the discussion?

What are the signs that indicate central banks are struggling to stimulate economic activity?

Discuss the implications of negative treasury yields in America as mentioned in the text.