Englander: Fed Would Rather Miss to the Upside

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation, suggesting a shift in their target above 2% due to asymmetric loss functions. It examines economic indicators like GDP and labor market data, questioning the relevance of the Phillips curve. The discussion highlights productivity issues and the challenges in determining the Fed's neutral rate, suggesting a need for confidence intervals in their estimates.

What has been the recent target inflation rate that the Federal Reserve seems to be signaling?

How do the recent labor market numbers affect the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation?

What factors, besides the labor market, have historically affected the Phillips curve?

What implications does low productivity growth have on the Federal Reserve's assessment of the economy?

Why is it challenging for the Federal Reserve to determine the neutral Fed funds rate?