Why Mike Wilson Is Sticking With Bearish S&P 500 Year-End Target

The transcript discusses market views, including a 12-month outlook and tactical views. It outlines target prices for the year-end, with a base case of 3900, a bull case of 4200, and a bear case of 3600. The speaker acknowledges timing errors in tactical trading but maintains confidence in the overall path. The discussion shifts to rate volatility leading to equity volatility, with concerns about banking stress leading to a credit crunch. The speaker emphasizes the likelihood of an earnings recession, which they believe is more severe than consensus estimates.

What is the base case target price for the year end mentioned in the text?

What are the three target price scenarios mentioned in the text?

How does the speaker view the relationship between rate volatility and equity volatility?

What does the speaker mean by 'earnings recession' and how does it relate to the economic recession?

What is the speaker's confidence level regarding the earnings situation compared to consensus views?