El-Erian: One Rate Hike Is Certain This Year, Maybe Two

The transcript discusses the probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, highlighting a 47% chance in December. It explores the Fed's relationship with market expectations, drawing parallels with Japan's monetary policy. The potential for the Fed to act before the US election is considered, emphasizing the desire to normalize policies while being cautious of unintended consequences.

What factors does the Fed consider when deciding to hike rates according to the text?

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What warning does the text provide regarding central banks and monetary policy?

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