The Calm Before the Storm: U.S. Stocks Set for Turbulent Times

The video discusses the current market scenario where traders are shorting the VIX, indicating a belief in continued low volatility. However, some speculate this could be a calm before a storm. The video highlights a significant net short position in CFTC futures, suggesting traders expect the VIX to remain low. Despite this, one trader has placed a large bet on VIX calls, anticipating a potential surge. This move is interpreted as a sign that some global macro hedge funds believe stocks are overvalued and are preparing for unseen risks, possibly leading to a US recession by April.

What does the record net short position in VIX suggest about market sentiment?

What prediction is made regarding a potential US recession?