Shiller: Hard to Forecast at This Time in History

The video discusses the challenges of economic forecasting amid significant government changes, particularly under Trump's administration. It explores scenarios like the Trump boom and the impact of potential tax code reforms on the housing market. The discussion also touches on historical mortgage rates and their effect on housing affordability, emphasizing the complexity of predicting economic outcomes due to sociological factors.

What factors make it difficult to forecast economic changes during significant political transitions?

What are the potential scenarios discussed regarding the economic impact of Trump's policies?

In what ways does the speaker suggest that sociology plays a role in economic predictions?

How might changes in the tax code affect homebuyers and the housing market?

What historical context is provided regarding home buying during the late 70s and early 80s?