Goldman Sees 35% U.S. Recession Risk in Next Two Years

Goldman Sachs has increased its prediction of a recession in the US to 35% over the next two years. This prediction is based on historical trends, particularly the significant decline in the gap between job openings and available workers. The video discusses the historical context of recessions, comparing past cycles to recent ones, and considers the impact of quantitative easing and tightening. It also examines the effects of recent tightening cycles on the market, questioning which historical precedent to follow.

What are the odds of a recession in the US over the next two years according to Goldman Sachs?

What historical evidence does Jan Hatzius rely on to support the recession odds?

What is the significance of the gap between job openings and workers mentioned in the text?

How many tightening cycles have occurred since World War II, and how many of those have seen a recession within two years?

What was different about the market impact during the tightening cycle from 2016 to 2019 compared to previous cycles?