Reliability of US Payroll Data

The video discusses the reliability of labor market data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. Concerns are raised about the accuracy of data sources like NFP and QCW, especially given low response rates and potential biases. Alternative data sources like JOLTS are considered, but they also have limitations. The discussion highlights the risks of policy errors during economic transitions and suggests a cautious approach for the Fed in adjusting interest rates. The importance of understanding data limitations and the need for careful analysis in economic decision-making are emphasized.

What are the challenges associated with the birth-death adjustment in labor market statistics?

What insights can be drawn from the discrepancy between job growth numbers and wage growth?

How should the Fed approach interest rate decisions in light of uncertain economic indicators?