Watching Oil as a Guide to the Federal Reserve's Rate Path

The video discusses the current state of the oil market, highlighting WTI's low prices and the US's decision to allow allies to import Iranian oil, excluding the EU. Chris Gesicht from Bell Curve Capital suggests investors focus on oil rather than payroll data for insights into the Fed's next moves. The discussion shifts to commodities like copper and aluminum, indicating a global economic slowdown and controlled inflation. The potential impact of a China trade deal on industrial metals is also explored, with skepticism about a quick resolution before the midterms.

What are the implications of a potential deal with China on commodities according to the text?

What does the speaker believe about the timeline for any actions from China regarding trade?