How to Avoid the Pitfalls of Factor Investing According to Duke Professor

The video discusses the inversion of the five-year and three-month rates, which was analyzed in the speaker's dissertation. It explains that a full quarter of inversion is needed for the model to signal a recession. The speaker predicts that a recession is unlikely in 2019 but possible in 2020.

What does the model need to indicate a recession?

• Economic growth

• Inversion

• Increased employment

• Consumer spending

What is the possibility of a recession occurring in 2020?

• Very likely

• Unlikely

• A possibility

• Certain