Manufacturing Is in a Global Cyclical Downturn, Metlife's Matus Says

The transcript discusses the IMF's quantification of trade war costs and its impact on GDP. It argues that some economic data blamed on the trade war is actually due to a cyclical downturn in manufacturing, which is a natural part of the industry cycle. The discussion highlights the complexity of attributing economic changes solely to trade conflicts.

What is the relationship between the trade war and the nonmanufacturing ISM data according to the speaker?

In what ways does the speaker suggest the cyclical downturn in manufacturing is influenced?