WorksheetsJudgmental Forecasting
Total questions: 8
Worksheet time: 5mins
Which of the following is NOT a Delphi caracteristique?
Anonymity
Role playing
Statistical Response
Feedback
Is that an undershot?
Yes
No
Which of the following is NOT a judgmental forecasting method?
Delphi
Analogies
Simple Judgement
Gamification
If you toss a coin 10 times and it lands heads up every time, what are the chances it will land heads up if you toss it again?
10%
90%
50%
100%
Participants observed a roulette wheel that was predetermined to stop on either 10 or 65. Participants were then asked to guess the percentage of the United Nations that were African nations. Participants whose wheel stopped on 10 guessed lower values (25% on average) than participants whose wheel stopped at 65 (45% on average). Which of the cognitive bias is presented?
Misconceptions of Chance
Anchoring
Insensitivity to sample size
Biases of imaginability
Retrievability
What is a superforecaster?
A Superforecaster is marvel villain.
A Superforecaster is an expert who is specialized in the stock market and makes forecasts of high accuracy.
A Superforecaster is a fortune-teller.
A Superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that prove to be consistently more accurate than those made by others.
Which of the following is a step of Structure analogies?
Write down percentages of analogies
Feedback
Role playing
Anonymity
Which of the following is NOT a type of forecasting?
Statistical Forecasting
Cognitive Biases
Budget Forecasting
Judgemental Forecasting
