WorksheetsOPERATIONS PPT 3
Total questions: 22
Worksheet time: 18mins
Is the art and science of predicting future events.
(a)
estimates of the occurrence, timing or magnitude of uncertain future events
TRUE
FALSE
3 Forecasting time horizons
(a)
Types of forecast except
Economic forecast
Technological forecast
Demand forecast
Short-range forecast
projection of demand for a company’s product or services. Forecast drive decisions, so managers need immediate and accurate information about real demand. They need demand driven forecast where the focus is on rapidly identifying and tracking customers desires.
Demand forecast
Technological forecast
Economic forecast
Capacity
- also known as intermediate,
(a)
3
strategic importance of forecasting
(a)
2 forecasting approaches
(a)
A group of managers meet and come up with a forecast
Executive opinion
Market research
Delphi method
Naive approve
Market research
Uses surveys and interviews to identify customer preference
Seeks to develop a consensus among a group of experts
A group of managers meet and come up with a forecast
Seeks to develop a consensus among a group of experts
(a)
> A time series based on the sequence of evenly spaced weekly, monthly, and quarterly, data points.
(a)
Decomposition of time series except
Trend
Seasonality
Cycles
Random Variations
Executive opinion
is the gradual upward or downward movement of the data overtime. Change in income, population, age distribution or cultural views may account for movement in trend.
(a)
is the data pattern that repeats itself after a period of days, weeks, months or quarters.
(a)
are patterns in the data that occur every several years. They are usually tied into the business cycle and are of major importance in short-term business analysis and planning
(a)
are blips in the data caused by chance and unusual situations. They follow no discernible pattern, so they cannot be predicted
(a)
Approach the simplest way to forecast is to assume that demand in the next period will be equal to demand in the most recent period
(a)
a forecast uses a number of historical actual data values to generate a forecast. Moving averages are useful if we can assume that the market demand will stay fairly steady over time.
Naive approach
Moving average
Weighted moving average
Exponential smoothing
This practice makes forecasting techniques more responsive to change because more recent periods maybe more heavily weighted.
(a)
is another weighted moving average forecasting method. It involves very little record keeping of past data and is fairly easy to use.
(a)
What are the time series
Naive approach
Moving average
Exponential average
Weighted average
Linear regression
