P2U1 05Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

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What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?

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The DTM describes a sequence of changes over a period of time in the relationship between birth and death rates and overall population change.

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What characterizes Stage 1: High Stationary of the DTM?

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High birth and death rates resulting in low and fluctuating population growth. Examples include some indigenous tribes in the Amazon.

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What are reasons for high birth rates in Stage 1 & early stages?

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Parents want children for labor, to look after them in old age, to replace children who have died young, and to continue the family name.

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What are reasons for high death rates in Stage 1 & early stages?

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Lack of safe clean water, nutritious food, hygiene and sanitation, conflict/war, and contagious diseases like malaria.

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What characterizes Stage 2: Early Expanding of the DTM?

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Birth rates remain high, but death rates start to fall rapidly, leading to rapid population growth. An example is Afghanistan.

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What characterizes Stage 3: Late Expanding of the DTM?

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Birth rates drop and death rates stay low. Population is still growing but starts to slow down. An example is South Africa.

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What characterizes Stage 4: Low Stationary of the DTM?

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Both births and deaths are now low. Population growth has stabilized but may fluctuate. Examples include most developed nations like China and Canada.

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What characterizes Stage 5: Low Declining of the DTM?

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The birth rate is now lower than the death rate, leading to population decline. As the population ages, the death rate may start to increase. Examples include Japan and Germany.

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What are reasons for birth rate decline in Stages 3, 4, 5?

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Children are costly, more women want careers, government support through pensions and health services, and widespread use of family planning.

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What are reasons for low death rates in Stages 2, 3, 4, 5?

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Availability of clean safe drinking water, reliable nutritious food supply, good hygiene and sanitation, medical advances, and lower population densities.