Flu + Winter Pressures on the NHS

Winter Pressures on the NHS

by Mameh Bockarie

​What I'll Cover

• ​Pre-Pandemic Winter Pressures on the NHS

• ​Covid-19's ongoing impact on the NHS

• ​'Post-Pandemic' Winter Pressures on the NHS

​

Multiple Choice

Excess winter deaths in Winter 2018/19

• 20000

• 45000

• 50000

• 30000

Multiple Choice

How much additional winter funding did NHS services receive in 2018/19?

• £400 Million

• £700 Million

• £415 million 

• £145 Million

Multiple Choice

How much additional winter funding did NHS services receive in 2019/20?

• £130Million

• £300 Million

• £0 million 

• £145 Million

​Pre-Pandemic Winter Pressures on the NHS

​Winter 2017/2018

​In many ways, the worst winter on record:

• ​Excess winter deaths were the highest recorded since 1975/76

• ​February 2018 likely most pressurised month in the NHS' history

​Winter 2018/2019

• ​Received additional winter funding that was the lowest in 7 years

• ​Bed occupancy rates at unsafe levels in 96% of trusts

• ​41 out of 134 trusts had 100% bed occupancy for at least 1 day in winter

• ​De-prioritisation of cancer care meant cancer referrals + treatment suffered

• ​Staff shortages (of senior doctors due to new taxation rules)

• ​junior doctors having to move away from specialist training jobs to meet frontline winter demands

• ​4 in 10 NHS staff feel unwell due to work stress

• ​4.3 million people waiting for treatment

Winter 2019/2020

• ​No additional funding for the winter months

​Impact of COVID + Government Response

• ​Unprepared with pandemic planning - based more on the flu model

• ​Initial 'fatalistic' approach to dealing with the pandemic cost many lives

• ​Not recognising the significant risk on social care.

• ​Staff shortages

• ​A lot of deaths due to health inequalities: BAME and those who are disabled/neurodivergent

Multiple Choice

In July 2021, How many people were waiting for NHS treatment

• 4.3 million

• 6.5 Million

• 5.6 Million

• 4.9 million

Multiple Choice

How many doctors per 1000 people are there in the uk

• 5.2

• 2.8

• 6.5

• 4.7

​'Post Pandemic' Winter Pressure

• ​NHS Backlog

• ​Shortfall of 50,000+ doctors, mainly due to burnout and excessive workloads

• ​Over 2 months (July-Sep) there has been a loss of 1029 FTE doctors

• ​Fears over Flu season

• ​A & E waits increasing

• ​Despite the government giving an extra £12bn in funding, the BMA estimates that core health spending is still £10bn short

​What do you guys think?