Developing A Probability Model

Developing A Probability Model

First Let's Review​!!!

Multiple Choice

Probabilities are always between...

• 0 & 1 or 0% & 100%

• 0 & 100 or 0% & 1%

• 1 & 100

• 2 & 1

Multiple Choice

Theoretical Probability is?

• What Should happen
• What does happen
• What Will Happen
• What I want to Happen

Multiple Choice

Experimental Probability is:

• What Will happen 
• What actually happens
• What should happen
• What I think Happens

Multiple Choice

A bag contains 30 pieces of candy. There are 15 grape, 7 cherry, 3 lemon, 5 strawberry. What is the probability of drawing a lemon?

• 3
• 1/10
• 3/10
• 30%

Multiple Choice

Possible results of an event

• outcomes
• compound event
• simple event
• probability

Multiple Choice

What is an event that will happen or has a probability of 1?

• theoretical

• probability

• mutually exclusive

• certain

Developing a Probability Model​

• A Sample Space is the set of all possible outcomes.

• ​A probability model can help you evaluate a chance process and its outcomes. You can develop a model using experimental probability or theoretical probability

• ​A Probability Model has a:

  Sample Space

  List of Events

• The Probability of each Event

​

Multiple Choice

A set of all possible outcomes of events.

• Independent Events
• Outcome 
• Probability
• Sample Space

Fill in the Blanks

When a marble is drawn, there are _ possible outcomes.

A model for the jar of marbles above would look something like this:​

Multiple Choice

Sample Space, S =

• {R, R, R, R G, P, P, P, P, P}

• {G, G, G, G, G, G, P, P, P, R}

• {R, R, R, R, R, G, P, P, P, P}

• {R, G, G, G, P, P, P, P, P, P}

Multiple Choice

P(Red)

• $$\frac{3}{10}$$  , .3, 30%

• $$\frac{1}{10}$$  , .1, 10%

• $$\frac{6}{10}$$  , .6, 60%

Multiple Choice

P(Green)

• $$\frac{3}{10}$$  , .3, 30%

• $$\frac{1}{10}$$  , .1, 10%

• $$\frac{6}{10}$$  , .6, 60%

Multiple Choice

P(Purple)

• $$\frac{3}{10}$$  , .3, 30%

• $$\frac{1}{10}$$  , .1, 10%

• $$\frac{6}{10}$$  , .6, 60%

Fill in the Blanks

Develop a model based on theoretical probability for rolling a

number cube labeled from 1 through 6

Sample Space:

Multiple Choice

P(1)?

• 1/6

• 1/4

• 1/5

• 1/7

Multiple Choice

P(2)?

• 1/6

• 1/4

• 1/5

• 1/7

Multiple Choice

P(3)?

• 1/6

• 1/4

• 1/5

• 1/7

Multiple Choice

P(4)?

• 1/6

• 1/4

• 1/5

• 1/7

Multiple Choice

P(5)?

• 1/6

• 1/4

• 1/5

• 1/7

Multiple Choice

P(6)?

• 1/6

• 1/4

• 1/5

• 1/7

Fill in the Blanks

Ms. Stillman has a marble jar but the number of marbles or their colors is not known. Each of 30 students draws a marble, notes its color, and then puts it back in the jar. Based on the results in the table develop a model based on experimental probability

Sample space:

Multiple Choice

P(red)

• $$\frac{4}{30}$$  

• $$\frac{11}{30}$$  

• $$\frac{15}{30}$$  

Multiple Choice

P(blue)

• $$\frac{4}{30}$$  

• $$\frac{11}{30}$$  

• $$\frac{15}{30}$$  

Multiple Choice

P(green)

• $$\frac{4}{30}$$  

• $$\frac{11}{30}$$  

• $$\frac{15}{30}$$  

Multiple Choice

Which shows the sample space for flipping two coins? 
H = heads, T = tails

• H, T
• HH, HT, TH, TT
• HH, TT
• HH, TT, TT, HH

Multiple Choice

• Answer Choice A
• Answer Choice B
• Answer Choice C
• Answer Choice D

Poll

How do you feel?

• Great!

• Okay

• I still have some learning to do

TIME FOR INDEPENDENT PRACTICE!!!​