Chance - introduction

Chance - introduction

What is chance?

​In everyday language, the words probability and chance mean the same thing.

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People make statements that involve probability all the time.

​"There is a good chance of rain late this afternoon"

"I'm fairly certain I will pass the next test"

"The Australian cricket team is the favourite to win the one-day series"

"The Los Angeles Rams are most likely to win this year's Superbowl"

All of these are examples of events, an event is something that may happen. The outcome of an event is the result that happens.

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The probability of an event happening is the chance of that event happening.

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Probability can be written as fractions, decimals (0 to 1) or as percentages (0 to 100%).

Continuum questions

​What is the appropriate probability?

Poll

What's the probability that .... it will rain tomorrow?

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Poll

What's the probability that .... I will catch a bus home after school?

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Poll

What's the probability that .... I will go to bed tonight?

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Multiple Choice

If you select a marble without looking, how likely it that you will pick a red one?

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Multiple Choice

How likely is that the spinner will land on a pink space?

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Multiple Choice

How likely is that the spinner will land on a blue space?

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Multiple Choice

What is the chance you will lay an egg today?

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Multiple Choice

What is the chance tomorrow will have a maximum temperature of -20 degrees C

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Multiple Choice

What

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Multiple Choice

What is the chance Christmas Day will be 25 December?

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Multiple Choice

What is the chance if you toss an ordinary coin, it will show either heads or tails?

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Multiple Choice

What is the chance if you roll a standard six-sided die, the result will be 1

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Multiple Choice

What is the chance if you roll a standard six-sided die, the result will be 7

• Impossible

  0%

• Ulikely

  25%

• Equally likely

  50%

• Likely

  75%

• Certain

  100%

Sample Space

To determine the probability of an event occurring it is useful to list the sample space. The sample space is the list of all possible outcomes.

Sample Sapce

What is the sample space of flipping a coin?

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What is the sample space of rolling a standard dice?

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​What is the sample space of rock paper scissors?

What are all possible outcomes?

Multiple Choice

What is the sample space?

• S = 5

• S = red, orange, yellow, green, white

• S = 2 bears

• S = unlikely

Multiple Choice

What is the sample space for a ten-sided die, with its sides labelled from 1 to 10, is rolled once

• S = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

• S = 10, 9, 7, 8, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

• S = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

• S = unlikely

Multiple Choice

Two coins tossed at the same time?

• S = HH, TH, HT, TT

• S = HH, TT

• S = TH, HT

• S = HH, TT, HH, TT

Multiple Choice

A letter is chosen at random from the letters of the word probability

• S = p, r, o, b, a, b, i, l, i, t, y

• S = p, r, o, b, a, i, l, t, y

p r o b a b i l i t y

Sample space is all of the possible outcomes

The possible outcomes are the following letters

​

p, r, o, b, a, i, l, i, t, y

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We only count the distinct letters​

Some text here about the topic of discussion

Draw

What is the sample space for the word MISSISIPI.

Draw

What is the sample space for the word:

MATHEMATHICS