Confirmation Bias | Mr. Q

Guess the pattern the sequence follows

Exercise to improve your thinking

Fill in the Blanks

Sequence A

1, 2, 3, _

You have one test to which I will tell you if it follows the pattern or not.

Then you will guess the pattern.

Pattern

n+1

Fill in the Blanks

Sequence B

4, 9, 16, _

You have one test to which I will tell you if it follows the pattern or not.

Then you will guess the pattern.

Did you guess the pattern is n²?

Pattern

n²

Guess the pattern that

all three sequences follow

You will be given 3 sequences

2, 4, 6, _

5, 7, 9, _

23, 25, 27, _

Guess the one pattern that

all three sequences follow

Confirmation bias (n)

the tendency to look for (search for, interpret, prefer and recall) information that confirms or supports your existing beliefs.

Examples: Simple Psychology

"Our confirmation bias causes us to ignore facts that disagree with what we believe."

Conclusion: Trash your theory

• Don't go looking for evidence for what you already think.

• Don't try to prove your decision is right.

• The scientific way is to look for the one data point that will trash your theory. If that data point is repeatable, you will find yourself on the edge of a deeper understanding.

Multiple Select

You have a high IELTS score. You believe that this is because you read many English books growing up. To avoid confirmation bias, you should look for examples of...

• students who read very little and have a low score.

• other students who read a lot and have a high score.

• students who read very little but have a high score.

• students who read a lot but have a low score.

• high IELTS scoring people who don't read.

Multiple Select

You are a successful businessperson. You believe that you make good decisions in business. To avoid confirmation bias, you should...

• remember all the times you made decisions that resulted in success.

• remember the times when you made decisions that resulted in failure.

• look for examples of people who made the same decision as you but failed.

• think of the times you made the wrong decision but succeeded anyway.

• look for people who

Multiple Choice

You are a scientist who believes that the Earth's warming climate is due to human action. To avoid confirmation bias, you should try to find evidence of...

• earth cooling due to humans.

• earth warming due to reasons other than human action

• the sun warming.

• the earth warming due to human action in different countries.