Making Predictions using Theoretical/Experimental Probability

Making Predictions using

Theoretical and

Experimental Probabilities

February 2023

Learning Standards

NC.7.SP.6 Collect data to calculate the experimental probability of a chance event,
observing its long-run relative frequency. Use this experimental probability to
predict the approximate relative frequency.

Learning Targets

●I can find theoretical probability and make predictions

●I can find experimental probability and make predictions

Example 1

~What is the probability of the spinner landing on a
primary color?

~If the spinner is spun 200 times, how many
times should the spinner land on a primary
color?

~If the spinner is spun 300 times, how many
times should the spinner land on a primary
color?

Example 2

~Chuckie is going to roll the dice
252 times. How many times should we
expect the dice to land on a number greater
than or equal to 2?

~What is the probability of the dice landing on
a number greater than or equal to 2?

Multiple Choice

If the spinner below was spun 100 times, about how many times would you expect the spinner to land on red?

• 20

• 25

• 15

• 35

Fill in the Blank

If the spinner below is spun 12 times, how many times can you expect the spinner to land on R?

Multiple Choice

If the spinner below is spun 16 times, how many times can you expect the spinner to land on the number 3?

• 4

• 2

• 16

• 3

Example 3

~ Tommy randomly selected marbles 100
times. Out of the 100 times he picked a
marble, 36 marbles were green. What is
the experimental probability of selecting a green marble?

~ If Tommy selects 250 marbles, how
many should we predict will be green?

Multiple Choice

The following table shows the results of a survey in which 50 people were asked to name their favorite sport.

Based on these results, how many people out of 1000 would you expect to pick soccer as their favorite sport?

• 240

• 120

• 250

• 225

Multiple Choice

Tom solved 9 out of the 15 practice questions for a test correctly. If the actual test is 35 questions, how many can Tom expect to solve correctly?

• In the actual test Tom is expected to solve 21 questions correct

• In the actual test Tom is expected to solve 25 questions correct

• In the actual test Tom is expected to solve 12 questions correct

• In the actual test Tom is expected to solve 15 questions correct

Multiple Choice

An envelope contains 3 different colored cards. Tyler reached in, pulled out a card, recorded the color, and put the card back. He did this 50 times.

Based on these results, what is the best prediction as to the number of green cards he would pick in 100 times?

• 50

• 25

• 100

• 75