Probability and Likelyhood

Probability

What are the chances?

How likely an event will occur

​

​Define Probablity

​A number between 0 (0%) and 1 (100%)

​Written as P_(event) or P_(e)

• Where the word event can be replaced with what you want to occur.

• Example: P_(heads)

Drag and Drop

The probability scale falls between ​

Placeholder

at lowest end and ​

Placeholder

​ at highest end

OR 0% and ​

Placeholder

percent

Drag these tiles and drop them in the correct blank above

0

1

100

50

26

1/2

5000

1000

8.2

​A way to describe probability using words

Likelihood

Labelling

Place each word on the probability scale

Drag labels to their correct position on the image

As likely as not

Unlikely

Certain

Impossible

Likely

Impossible and Certain

Will or has happened

Probability = 1 (100%)

​Certain

Can NEVER happen

Probability = 0 (0%)

Impossible

​Roll a 7 on a 6 sided die

​Roll a number less than 10 on a 6 sided die

Multiple Choice

What is the likelihood of rolling the sum of 15 with a pair of dice?

• impossible

• unlikely

• equally likely

• likely

Match

Match each event with its likelihood

• impossible

• Unlikely

• As likely as not

• Likely

• Certain

A pig flying.

Picking a face card from a deck of cards.

Getting heads on a coin toss.

A sum greater than 4 when rolling 2 dice.

Rolling a number less than 7 on a die.

• A pig flying.

• Picking a face card from a deck of cards.

• Getting heads on a coin toss.

• A sum greater than 4 when rolling 2 dice.

• Rolling a number less than 7 on a die.

When all outcomes are as equally likely

​

​Theoretical Probability

​ALWAYS SIMPLIFY THE FRACTION !!!

ALL possible outcomes

​# of ways to get what you want

​Pulling a green marble?

​What is the probability of...

Multiple Choice

What is the probability of pulling a blue marble?

• $$\frac{4}{10}$$

• $$\frac{1}{2}$$

• $$\frac{2}{3}$$

• $$\frac{2}{5}$$

Multiple Choice

What is the likelihood of pulling a blue marble?

• certain

• impossible

• as likely as not

• likely

• unlikely

Multiple Choice

What is the probability of spinning orange?

• 0

• 1/4

• 1/2

• 3/4

Multiple Choice

What is the probability of the spinner landing on red?

• 5/12

• 7/12

• 5/5

• 5/10 or 1/2

Multiple Choice

In a deck of 52 cards, what is the likelihood of selecting 1 of the 4 aces?

• impossible

• unlikely

• as likely as unlikely

• likely

Multiple Choice

A die is rolled once.  What is the probability of rolling a number less than 3?

• 1/3

• 2/6

• 3/6

• 1/6

Multiple Choice

Nerissa has 5 pink bows, 1 blue bow, and 4 purple bows in a box. She will randomly choose 1 bow from the box.

What is the probability Nerissa will choose a purple bow?

• 1/2

• 2/5

• 1/10

• 3/5

Reorder

Lauren spins the spinner with 8-equal sized sections one time. Drag the tiles to arrange the events in order from least likely to most likely.

• spinning a 4 or 5

• spinning a 6

• spinning an even number

• spinning a number greater than 5

1

2

3

4

• 1
• 2
• 3
• 4

Multiple Choice

A bag contains 30 pieces of candy. There are 15 grape, 7 cherry, 3 lemon, 5 strawberry. What is the probability of drawing a lemon?

• 3

• 1/10

• 3/10

• 30%

Multiple Choice

To play a game Benny must spin the spinner shown below. 

          What is the probability that the spinner will land on a number less than 7?

• 7/8

• 3/4

• 8/7

• 0

Experimental Probability

Theoretical vs Experimental Probability

Experimental Probability

Multiple Choice

The bar graph shows the results of spinning the spinner 200 times. What is the experimental probability of landing on a 3?

Multiple Choice

The table shows the results of 50 rolls of a number cube. According to the data in the table, what was the experimental probability of rolling a 1? (Simplify if needed)

Multiple Choice

What happens to the experimental probability as the number of trials increases?

• As more trials are completed, the experimental probability generally draws closer to the theoretical probability

• As more trials are completed, the theoretical probability generally draws closer to the experimental probability