Probability Lesson 1
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•
Mathematics
•
University
•
Easy
Jon Casteel
Used 1+ times
FREE Resource
81 Slides • 2 Questions
1
- Walt Disney
" The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing."
2
About your professor
Jonathan
Casteel
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ETSU Graduate (Class of '97)
--Engineering Technology
25 Years of Teaching Experience
--Elementary School, High School,
--Community College, Industry, University
Places I've Been
--Born in and currently live in Bristol
--Lived in NC for 17 years
--Been to over half the states in America
--Visited four countries in Europe, & Bahamas
Jonathan Casteel
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1997 - East Tennesee State University
Bachelor's of Science in Engineering Technology w/ focus in Technology Education
Education
2005 - East Carolina University
Master's of Science in Technology Systems
2008 - Andersonville Theological Seminary
Doctorate of Ministry in Pastoral Leadership
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Fun Facts
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Married for 25 years
Fun Facts
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Married for 25 years
Met my wife in a funeral home
Fun Facts
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Married for 25 years
Met my wife in a funeral home
Dated for 7 years before getting married
Fun Facts
9
Married for 25 years
Met my wife in a funeral home
Dated for 7 years before getting married
Have 4 kids, 2 dogs, 2 cats
Fun Facts
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Married for 25 years
Met my wife in a funeral home
Dated for 7 years before getting married
Have 4 kids, 2 dogs, 2 cats
Fun Facts
I work 4 jobs
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Married for 25 years
Met my wife in a funeral home
Dated for 7 years before getting married
Have 4 kids, 2 dogs, 2 cats
Fun Facts
I work 4 jobs
Love to go to the beach, but also love the mountains
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Married for 25 years
Met my wife in a funeral home
Dated for 7 years before getting married
Have 4 kids, 2 dogs, 2 cats
Fun Facts
I work 4 jobs
Love to go to the beach, but also love the mountains
I'm a book author (Christian books)
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Married for 25 years
Met my wife in a funeral home
Dated for 7 years before getting married
Have 4 kids, 2 dogs, 2 cats
Fun Facts
I work 4 jobs
Love to go to the beach, but also love the mountains
I'm a book author (Christian books)
I enjoy eating, music, art, and the outdoors
14
Married for 25 years
Met my wife in a funeral home
Dated for 7 years before getting married
Have 4 kids, 2 dogs, 2 cats
Fun Facts
I work 4 jobs
Love to go to the beach, but also love the mountains
I'm a book author (Christian books)
I enjoy eating, music, art, and the outdoors
Still not sure what I want to be when I grow up!
15
Open Ended
I want to hear from you! Tell me some things about yourself! Anything you want me to know at this point. Don't be shy! I want to know all about you!!
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Poll
RATE YOURSELF!
Which best describes your level of understanding about Probability and Statistics?
I'm a master at it!
I feel I know a lot.
I'm not real sure I know much about it.
I have no idea!
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Rules & Procedures
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Rules & Procedures
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Teaching Style
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Teaching Style
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- Walt Disney
" The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing."
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- Walt Disney
" The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing."
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Probability
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Probability
-the extent to which something is probable; the likelihood of some-thing happening or being the case.
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Fair Coin Example
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Fair Coin Example
This means there is EQUAL CHANCE of the coin landing on one side or the other.
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Fair Coin Example
This means there is EQUAL CHANCE of the coin landing on one side or the other.
What are the CHANCES of the coin landing on HEADS if I were to flip it in the air and let it land on the ground or table surface?
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Formula...
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Formula...
The properties of the coin are as such that it is equally likely the coin will land on one side or the other.
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Formula...
The properties of the coin are as such that it is equally likely the coin will land on one side or the other.
The Experiment
- What is the probability if I flip the coin that HEADS will land face up?
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Formula...
The properties of the coin are as such that it is equally likely the coin will land on one side or the other.
The Experiment
- What is the probability if I flip the coin that HEADS will land face up?
P (H) = ?
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What is Probability?
Probability is some type of process of predicting the outcome of an event that is fundamentally random.
The Experiment
- What is the probability if I flip the coin that HEADS will land face up?
P (H) = ?
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Fundamental Question:
How many different equally likely possibilities are there for the outcome of a random event?
P (H) = ?
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Fundamental Question:
How many different equally likely possibilities are there for the outcome of a random event?
P (H) = ?
# of equally likely possibilities
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Fundamental Question:
How many different equally likely possibilities are there for the outcome of a random event?
P (H) = ?
# of equally likely possibilities
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Fundamental Question:
How many different equally likely possibilities are there for the outcome of a random event?
P (H) = ?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of possibilities that meet my conditions
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What is the number of equally likely possibilities?
P (H) = ?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of possibilities that meet my conditions
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What is the number of equally likely possibilities?
P (H) = ?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of possibilities that meet my conditions
2
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What is the number of possibilities that meet my conditions?
P (H) = ?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of possibilities that meet my conditions
2
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What is the number of possibilities that meet my conditions?
P (H) = ?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of possibilities that meet my conditions
2
1
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What is the number of possibilities that meet my conditions?
P (H) = ?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of possibilities that meet my conditions
2
1
P (H) =
2
1
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What is the number of possibilities that meet my conditions?
P (H) = ?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of possibilities that meet my conditions
2
1
P (H) =
2
1
= 50%
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Let's Experiment...
The Experiment
- Flipping a coin, or set of coins, is considered in this
case a random event, or randomized experiment.
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Let's Experiment...
The Experiment
- Flipping a coin, or set of coins, is considered in this
case a random event, or randomized experiment.
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Next Level...
The Experiment
- Let's "roll the dice" and do another
random event experiment.
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Fair Die Example...
The Experiment
- Let's "roll the dice" and do another
random event experiment.
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Fundamental Question:
How many different equally likely possibilities are there for the outcome of a random event?
We could get a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
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Fundamental Question:
How many different equally likely possibilities are there for the outcome of a random event?
We could get a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
All are equally likely to be the result of any given random experiment.
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Fundamental Question:
How many different equally likely possibilities are there for the outcome of a random event?
We could get a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
6 of equally likely possibilities
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What is the Probability?
... of the die landing on a 1 ?
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P (1) = ?
Fundamental Question:
How many different equally likely possibilities are there for the outcome of this random event?
# of equally likely possibilities
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P (1) = ?
Fundamental Question:
How many different equally likely possibilities are there for the outcome of this random event?
6 of equally likely possibilities
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P (1) = ?
Fundamental Question:
How many OF the equally likely possible outcomes of this random event meets our criteria?
6 of equally likely possibilities
# of possibilities that meet my conditions
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P (1) = ?
Fundamental Question:
How many OF the equally likely possible outcomes of this random event meets our criteria?
6 of equally likely possibilities
# of possibilities that meet my conditions
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P (1) =
Fundamental Question:
How many OF the equally likely possible outcomes of this random event meets our criteria?
6 of equally likely possibilities
1 of the possibilities that meet my conditions
1
6
=
16.667%
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Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling a 1 OR a 6
# of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
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P (1 or 6) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling a 1 OR a 6
# of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
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P (1 or 6) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the number of equally likely possibilities of rolling a
1 OR a 6 ?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
60
P (1 or 6) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the number of equally likely possibilities of rolling a
1 OR a 6 ?
6 of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
6
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P (1 or 6) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the number of possibilities that meet my conditions of rolling a 1 OR a 6 ?
6 of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
6
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P (1 or 6) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the number of possibilities that meet my conditions of rolling a 1 OR a 6 ?
6 of equally likely possibilities
2 of the possibilities that meet my conditions
6
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P (1 or 6) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the number of possibilities that meet my conditions of rolling a 1 OR a 6 ?
6 of equally likely possibilities
2 of the possibilities that meet my conditions
6
2
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P (1 or 6) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the number of possibilities that meet my conditions of rolling a 1 OR a 6 ?
6 of equally likely possibilities
2 of the possibilities that meet my conditions
6
2
1
3
=
=
33.33%
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P (1 & 6) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the number of possibilities that meet my conditions of rolling a 1 AND a 6 ?
6 of equally likely possibilities
? of the possibilities that meet my conditions
6
=
?%
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P (1 & 6) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the number of possibilities that meet my conditions of rolling a 1 AND a 6 ?
6 of equally likely possibilities
0 of the possibilities that meet my conditions
6
=
?%
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P (1 & 6) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the number of possibilities that meet my conditions of rolling a 1 AND a 6 ?
6 of equally likely possibilities
0 of the possibilities that meet my conditions
6
=
0%
0
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70
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P ( ) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling an EVEN number when we roll the die?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
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P ( even # ) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling an EVEN number when we roll the die?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
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P ( even # ) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling an EVEN number when we roll the die?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
?
?
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P ( even # ) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling an EVEN number when we roll the die?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
?
?
We could get a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
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P ( even # ) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling an EVEN number when we roll the die?
6 of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
?
6
We could get a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
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P ( even # ) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling an EVEN number when we roll the die?
6 of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
?
6
We could get a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
78
P ( even # ) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling an EVEN number when we roll the die?
6 of equally likely possibilities
3 of the possibilities that meet my conditions
3
6
We could get a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
79
P ( even # ) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling an EVEN number when we roll the die?
6 of equally likely possibilities
3 of the possibilities that meet my conditions
3
6
=
?
?
=
?%
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P ( even # ) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling an EVEN number when we roll the die?
6 of equally likely possibilities
3 of the possibilities that meet my conditions
3
6
=
1
2
=
?%
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P ( even # ) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling an EVEN number when we roll the die?
6 of equally likely possibilities
3 of the possibilities that meet my conditions
3
6
=
1
2
=
50%
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P (1 or 6) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling an EVEN number when we roll the die?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
83
P (1 or 6) =
Fundamental Question:
What is the probability of rolling an EVEN number when we roll the die?
# of equally likely possibilities
# of the possibilities that meet my conditions
- Walt Disney
" The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing."
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