Predictably Irrational Parts 3 and 4

Predictably Irrational
Parts 3 and 4

Multiple Choice

What was the most popular subscription service among 100 students?

• Internet only

• Print only

• Internet and Print

Multiple Choice

What does Dan Ariely study?

• Internet advertisements

• Subscription services

• economic decision making

• Justice

Multiple Choice

行動経済学者

• behavioral economist

• economic decision making

• economic decisions

• active economics

Multiple Choice

Dan Ariely ___________ an advertisement one day.

• was looking for

• happened to find

• planned to publish

• none of the above

Multiple Choice

________ the print-only option, the print-and-internet option looks clearly better.

• Relative to

• Compared to

• All of the above

Multiple Choice

おとり

• predictable

• decoy

• browse

• offer

They all saw the advantage in the print-and-internet offer over the print-only offer.

Saw = noticed, realized

学生たちはみな，印刷版のみの価格より，印刷版兼インターネット版の価格のほうに利点があることに気づいた。

•_______ has/have an advantage over _______ because ______.

The Softbank Hawks have an advantage over the other team because they have Yanagita.

•______ has/have an advantage over ______ because ______.

Open Ended

______ has/have an advantage over _______ because ______.

Were they influenced by the presence of the print-only option, which I call the “decoy”? 

​関係詞

彼らは，私が「おとり」と呼んでいる，印刷版のみの選択肢の存在に影響を受けていたのだろうか。

In other words, suppose that I removed the decoy so that the choices would be the ones seen as follows:

​Suppose that = if

Suppose that it rains during class match, what will we do?

つまり，仮に私が，選択肢が次のように見えるように，おとりを取り除いたとしよう。

(1) internet-only subscription for $59 and (2) print-and-internet subscription for $125.

⑴ 59ドルでインターネット版のみの定期購読　⑵ 125ドルで印刷版兼インターネット版の定期購読

What do you think will happen?

Multiple Choice

What do you think most students will choose?

• Internet for $59

• Print and Internet for $125

Paragraph 4

Listening

Multiple Choice

Among the three options, which one was the decoy?

• Internet only

• Print only

• Internet and Print

• None of the above

Multiple Choice

Which option was the most popular after Dan Ariely removed the decoy?

• Internet only

• Internet and Print

• None of the above

Multiple Choice

How does Dan Ariely explain why his students changed their choice?

• The decoy made them choose differently

• Predictable irrational decision making

• All of the above

Would the students respond as before? 

学生たちは前と同じように反応するだろうか。

Would the students respond as before? 

After all, the option I took out was one that no one chose, so it should make no difference. 

結局のところ，私が取り除いた選択肢はだれも選ばないものだったので，何の違いも生じないはずだ。

Right? 
そうだろう？

On the contrary, this time, 68 students chose the internet-only option for $59. 

それどころか，今度は68人が，59ドルでインターネット版のみを定期購読する選択肢を選んだ。

Only 32 chose the combination subscription for $125. 

たった32人しか，125ドルでセット売りの定期購読を選ばなかったのである。

Why was the result so different?

Open Ended

Why was the result so different?

What could have possibly changed their minds? 

いったいなぜ彼らは心変わりしたのだろうか。

It was the decoy that made them choose differently. 

彼らに違う選択をさせたものこそがおとりだったのだ。

This is not only irrational but predictably irrational decision making caused by relativity.

これは不合理（な意思決定）というだけでなく，相対性によって生じる，予想通りに不合理な意思決定でもあるのである。