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Courses

2023/2024

Semester Genap

S1 Manajemen Rekayasa

RELOG 2024

20 May - 26 May

Final Test

Started on

Monday, 27 May 2024, 8:46 AM

StateFinished

Completed on

Monday, 27 May 2024, 9:55 AM

Time taken

1 hour 8 mins

Grade

88.00 out of 100.00

Question 1

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Forecasts are always wrong and therefore

a. should only be used when there are no accurate estimates.

b. should be missing the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.

c. should not include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.

d. should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.



Your answer is correct.

Forecasts are always wrong and therefore

should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.

The correct answer is:
should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.

Question 2

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 3

Incorrect

Mark 0.00 out of 2.00

Question 4

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Leaders in many supply chains have started moving toward collaborative forecasting to improve their ability to

match supply and demand.

Select one:

True 

False

The correct answer is 'True'.

Most firms that employ forecasting do not maintain any estimates of forecast error.

Select one:

True

False 

Most firms that employ forecasting do not maintain any estimates of forecast error.

The correct answer is 'True'.

Mature products with stable demand are usually the most difficult to forecast.

Select one:

True

False 

The correct answer is 'False'.

Question 5

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 6

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Forecasting methods that use historical demand to make a forecast are known as

a. causal forecasting methods.

b. simulation forecasting methods.

c. time series forecasting methods.



d. qualitative forecasting methods.

Your answer is correct.

Forecasting methods that use historical demand to make a forecast are known as time series forecasting

methods.

The correct answer is:

time series forecasting methods.

Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts because

a. long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term

forecasts.



b. short-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than long-term

forecasts.

c. short-term forecasts have more standard deviation of error relative to the mean than long-term forecasts.

d. long-term forecasts have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term

forecasts.

Your answer is correct.

Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts because long-term forecasts have a
larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.

The correct answer is:
long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.

Question 7

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 8

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain comes from

a. profitability projections.

b. production efficiency goals.

c. sales targets.

d. the forecast of demand.



Your answer is correct.

The correct answer is:

the forecast of demand.

The measure of forecast error where the amount of error of each forecast is squared and then an average is
calculated is

a. mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

b. mean squared error (MSE).



c. the tracking signal.

d. mean absolute deviation (MAD).

Your answer is correct.

The measure of forecast error where the amount of error of each forecast is squared and then an average is

calculated is mean squared error (MSE).

The correct answer is:
mean squared error (MSE).

Question 9

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 10

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 11

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

The basic trade-offs when creating an aggregate plan involve balancing the cost of capacity, the cost of

inventory, and the cost of stockouts to maximize profitability.

Select one:

True 

False

The correct answer is 'True'.

The forecast of demand forms the basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain.

Select one:

True 

False

The correct answer is 'True'.

________ forecasting methods assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the
environment (the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.).

a. Qualitative

b. Causal



c. Simulation

d. Time-series

Your answer is correct.

Causal forecasting methods assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the

environment (the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.).

The correct answer is:

Causal

Question 12

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 13

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

One of the characteristics of forecasts is

a. long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts.



b. aggregate forecasts are usually less accurate than disaggregate forecasts.

c. disaggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than aggregate forecasts.

d. short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts.

Your answer is correct.

One of the characteristics of forecasts is

long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts.

The correct answer is:
long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts.

The resulting accuracy of a collaborative forecast enables supply chains to be

a. both more responsive and more efficient in serving their customers.



b. both less responsive and less efficient in serving their customers.

c. less responsive but less efficient in serving their customers.

d. more responsive but less efficient in serving their customers.

Your answer is correct.

The resulting accuracy of a collaborative forecast enables supply chains to be

both more responsive and more efficient in serving their customers.

The correct answer is:
both more responsive and more efficient in serving their customers.

Question 14

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 15

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Forecasts should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.

Select one:

True 

False

The correct answer is 'True'.

For push processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to

a. plan the level of production.



b. plan the level of available capacity and inventory.

c. plan the service level.

d. plan the level of productivity.

Your answer is correct.

The correct answer is:

plan the level of production.

Question 16

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 17

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

The basic measures of product availability are

a. product fill rate



b. retailer level

c. order fill rate



d. cycle service level



Your answer is correct.

The basic measures of product availability are product fill rate, order fill rate, and cycle service level

The correct answers are:
product fill rate,

order fill rate,

cycle service level

The additive form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

a. (level + trend) × seasonal factor.

b. level + trend + seasonal factor.



c. level × trend × seasonal factor.

d. level × (trend + seasonal factor).

Your answer is correct.

The additive form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

level + trend + seasonal factor.

The correct answer is:

level + trend + seasonal factor.

Question 18

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 19

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain

reduce forecast error.

Select one:

True 

False

The correct answer is 'True'.

The moving average forecast method is used when

a. demand has no observable trend or seasonality.



b. demand has observable trend and seasonality.

c. demand has observable trend or seasonality.

d. demand has no observable level or seasonality.

Your answer is correct.

The moving average forecast method is used when demand has no observable trend or seasonality.

The correct answer is:
demand has no observable trend or seasonality.

Question 20

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 21

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Network design decisions are not influenced by strategic, technological, macroeconomic, political, infrastructure,
competitive, and operational factors

Select one:

True

False 

Network design decisions are influenced by strategic, technological, macroeconomic, political, infrastructure,
competitive, and operational factors.

The correct answer is 'False'.

The bullwhip effect results in a decrease in all costs in the supply chain and an increase in customer service
levels. This effect moves all parties in the supply chain close to the efficient frontier and results in an increase of

both customer satisfaction and profitability within the supply chain.

Select one:

True

False 

The bullwhip effect results in an increase in all costs in the supply chain and a decrease in customer service
levels. This effect moves all parties in the supply chain away from the efficient frontier and results in a decrease of

both customer satisfaction and profitability within the supply chain.

The correct answer is 'False'.

Question 22

Correct

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Question 23

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

In general, the further up the supply chain a company is (or the further they are from the consumer),

a. the more useful the information they receive.

b. the more accurate the information they receive.

c. the smaller the distortion of information they receive.

d. the greater the distortion of information they receive.



Your answer is correct.

In general, the further up the supply chain a company is (or the further they are from the consumer), the greater
the distortion of information they receive.

The correct answer is:

the greater the distortion of information they receive.

Forecasting methods that imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a forecast are
known as

a. qualitative forecasting methods.

b. time series forecasting methods.

c. simulation forecasting methods.



d. causal forecasting methods.

Your answer is correct.

Forecasting methods that imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a forecast are

known as simulation forecasting methods.

The correct answer is:

simulation forecasting methods.

Question 24

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 25

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

________ forecasting methods use historical demand to make a forecast.

a. Causal

b. Simulation

c. Time-series



d. Qualitative

Your answer is correct.

Time-series forecasting methods use historical demand to make a forecast.

The correct answer is:

Time-series

Mature products with stable demand

a. are usually easiest to forecast.



b. are usually hardest to forecast.

c. cannot be forecast.

d. do not need to be forecast.

Your answer is correct.

Mature products with stable demand are usually easiest to forecast.

The correct answer is:

are usually easiest to forecast.

Question 26

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 27

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

The goal of any forecasting method is to

a. predict the seasonal component of demand and estimate the random component.

b. predict the random component of demand and estimate the seasonal component.

c. predict the random component of demand and estimate the systematic component.

d. predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component.



Your answer is correct.

The goal of any forecasting method is to

predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component.

The correct answer is:
predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component.

The phenomenon that fluctuation in orders increases as one moves up the supply chain from retailers to
wholesalers to manufacturers to suppliers is referred to as the bullwhip effect.

Select one:

True 

False

The correct answer is 'True'.

Question 28

Incorrect

Mark 0.00 out of 2.00

Question 29

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions are extremely difficult when either the supply of raw

materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable.

Select one:

True

False 

Forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions are extremely difficult when either the supply of raw
materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable.

The correct answer is 'True'.

Forecasting methods that assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the

environment (e.g., the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.) to make a forecast are known as

a. simulation forecasting methods.

b. qualitative forecasting methods.

c. time series forecasting methods.

d. causal forecasting methods.



Your answer is correct.

Forecasting methods that assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the
environment (e.g., the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.) to make a forecast are known as causal
forecasting methods.

The correct answer is:

causal forecasting methods.

Question 30

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 31

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

The multiplicative form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

a. level × trend × seasonal factor.



b. (level + trend) × seasonal factor.

c. level × (trend + seasonal factor).

d. level + trend + seasonal factor.

Your answer is correct.

The multiplicative form of the systematic component of demand is shown as level × trend × seasonal factor.

The correct answer is:

level × trend × seasonal factor.

Network design decisions include identifying facility roles, locations, and capacities and allocating markets to be
served by different facilities.

Select one:

True 

False

The correct answer is 'True'.

Question 32

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 33

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

What does deseasonalizing a data set accomplish?

a. It removes all change in level from the data.

b. It removes the progression from one point to another from the data.

c. It removes all point-to-point variation from the data.

d. It removes the wavelike pattern from the data.



Your answer is correct.

What does deseasonalizing a data set accomplish?

It removes the wavelike pattern from the data.

The correct answer is:
It removes the wavelike pattern from the data.

In adaptive forecasting,

a. the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component are not adjusted as new

demand is observed.

b. All of the choice are true.

c. there is an assumption that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component

do not vary as new demand is observed.

d. the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.



Your answer is correct.

In adaptive forecasting, the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand
observation.

The correct answer is:
the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.

Question 34

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 35

Incorrect

Mark 0.00 out of 2.00

Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts because

a. disaggregate forecasts tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

b. aggregate forecasts tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.



c. disaggregate forecasts tend to have less standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

d. aggregate forecasts tend to have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

Your answer is correct.

Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts because aggregate forecasts tend
to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

The correct answer is:
aggregate forecasts tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

The result when each stage in the supply chain makes its own separate forecast is often a match between supply
and demand because these forecasts are often very different.

Select one:

True 

False

The result when each stage in the supply chain makes its own separate forecast is often a miss-match between

supply and demand because these forecasts are often very different.

The correct answer is 'False'.

Question 36

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 37

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning

a. hiring decisions.

b. scheduling.



c. promotions.

d. sales-force allocation.

Your answer is correct.

Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning scheduling.

The correct answer is:

scheduling.

Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when there is good historical data available or when
experts do not have market intelligence that is critical in making the forecast.

Select one:

True

False 

The correct answer is 'False'.

Question 38

Incorrect

Mark 0.00 out of 2.00

Question 39

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Personnel can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning

a. scheduling.

b. promotions.

c. plant/equipment investment.



d. purchasing.

Your answer is incorrect.

Personnel can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning promotions.

The correct answer is:
promotions.

The simple exponential smoothing forecast method is appropriate when

a. demand has no observable level or seasonality.

b. demand has no observable trend or seasonality.



c. demand has observable trend and seasonality.

d. demand has observable trend or seasonality.

Your answer is correct.

The simple exponential smoothing forecast method is appropriate when demand has no observable trend or

seasonality.

The correct answer is:
demand has no observable trend or seasonality.

Question 40

Incorrect

Mark 0.00 out of 2.00

Question 41

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

To manage supply with the goal of maximizing profit, companies can increase the capacity required through the

use of workforce flexibility, subcontracting, dual facilities, and product flexibility.

Select one:

True 

False

To manage supply with the goal of maximizing profit, companies can reduce the capacity required through the

use of workforce flexibility, subcontracting, dual facilities, and product flexibility.

To manage supply with the goal of maximizing profit, companies can reduce the capacity required through the

use of workforce flexibility, subcontracting, dual facilities, and product flexibility.

The correct answer is 'False'.

The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

a. level + trend + seasonal factor.

b. level × (trend + seasonal factor).

c. level × trend × seasonal factor.

d. (level + trend) × seasonal factor.



Your answer is correct.

The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown as (level + trend) × seasonal factor.

The correct answer is:

(level + trend) × seasonal factor.

Question 42

Correct

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Question 43

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 44

Incorrect

Mark 0.00 out of 2.00

In adaptive forecasting, the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand

observation.

Select one:

True 

False

The correct answer is 'True'.

Causal forecasting methods find a correlation between demand and environmental factors and use estimates of
what environmental factors will be to forecast future demand.

Select one:

True 

False

The correct answer is 'True'.

The goal of any forecasting method is to predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the

random component.

Select one:

True

False 

The goal of any forecasting method is to predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the
random component.

The correct answer is 'True'.

Question 45

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

A static method of forecasting

a. the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.

b. assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component do not

vary as new demand is observed.



c. assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component vary as new

demand is observed.

d. All of the choice are true.

Your answer is correct.

A static method of forecasting

assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new
demand is observed.

The correct answer is:
assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new

demand is observed.

Question 46

Correct

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Question 47

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

The result of each stage in the supply chain making its own separate forecast is

a. a match between supply and demand.

b. an accurate forecast.

c. a mismatch between supply and demand.



d. a more accurate forecast.

Your answer is correct.

The result of each stage in the supply chain making its own separate forecast is a mismatch between supply and

demand.

The correct answer is:

a mismatch between supply and demand.

Operational strategies that help mitigate risk in global supply chains include carrying excess capacity and
inventory, flexible capacity, redundant suppliers, improved responsiveness, and aggregation of demand.

Select one:

True 

False

The correct answer is 'True'.

Question 48

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Question 49

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when

a. there is little historical data available.



b. experts do not have critical market intelligence.

c. forecasting demand into the near future.

d. there is good historical data available.

Your answer is correct.

Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when there is little historical data available.

The correct answer is:
there is little historical data available.

________ forecasting methods are primarily subjective and rely on human judgment.

a. Qualitative



b. Causal

c. Time-series

d. Simulation

Your answer is correct.

Qualitative forecasting methods are primarily subjective and rely on human judgment.

The correct answer is:
Qualitative

Question 50

Correct

Mark 2.00 out of 2.00

For pull processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to plan the level of available

capacity and inventory.

Select one:

True 

False

The correct answer is 'True'.

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