Cup Toss Lesson

Open Ended

Predict the probability for each position in which the cup can land.

Multiple Choice

Write the fraction as a percent: 3/10

• 15%
• 30%
• 25%
• 50%

Multiple Choice

Write the fraction as a percent: 1/4.

• 20%
• 30%
• 40%
• 25%

Open Ended

How can you compare these probability models to what actually happens when you perform an experiment?

Multiple Choice

Which of the following best describes the process of calculating the probability of an event in a coin flip experiment?

• Count the number of heads and divide by the total flips.

• Count the number of tails and divide by the total flips.

• Add the number of heads and tails together.

• Multiply the number of heads by the number of tails.

Open Ended

Do you think all the outcomes are equally likely? Explain your reasoning.

Open Ended

Can you use the sample space to determine the probability that the cup lands upright, upside-down, or on its side? Explain why or why not.

Multiple Choice

Which of the following best describes the difference between theoretical probability and experimental probability?

• Theoretical probability is based on expected outcomes, while experimental probability is based on actual results.

• Theoretical probability is always higher than experimental probability.

• Experimental probability is calculated before an experiment, while theoretical probability is calculated after.

• Experimental probability and theoretical probability are always equal.

Open Ended

Why is it important to determine the experimental probability of simple events in real-life situations?

Open Ended

Do you think this is a fair game to play? Why or why not?

Open Ended

Can you use the sample space to determine the probabilities of the spinner landing on each symbol? Explain why or why not.

Multiple Choice

Which student made a more reasonable prediction for the probability of the spinner landing on each symbol, Jonah or Melanie?

• Jonah

• Melanie

• Both are equally reasonable

• Neither is reasonable

Open Ended

Explain why each student is incorrect in their predictions for the probability of the spinner landing on each symbol.

Multiple Choice

What is the probability that a spinner will land on the soccer ball section, and how can you use proportional reasoning to predict the number of times it will land on that section if you spin it 60 times?

• The probability is 7/20, and you can use proportional reasoning to predict it will land 21 times.

• The probability is 1/4, and you can use proportional reasoning to predict it will land 15 times.

• The probability is 2/5, and you can use proportional reasoning to predict it will land 24 times.

• The probability is 7/20, and you can use proportional reasoning to predict it will land 7 times.

Open Ended

How did you predict the number of times the spinner would land on each symbol for the given number of times you would spin the spinner?

Multiple Choice

Suppose these are the probabilities for the symbols on the spinner: P(soccer ball) = 7/20, P(shell) = 2/5, P(camera) = 1/4. If you spin the spinner 40 times, predict the number of times the spinner would land on each symbol.

• Soccer ball: 14, Shell: 16, Camera: 10

• Soccer ball: 7, Shell: 8, Camera: 5

• Soccer ball: 21, Shell: 24, Camera: 15

• Soccer ball: 12, Shell: 20, Camera: 8

Open Ended

What would it mean to have a 0% error when comparing experimental and theoretical probabilities?

Multiple Choice

As the number of trials increases, what happens to the percent error between experimental and theoretical probability?

• The percent error decreases and gets closer to zero.

• The percent error increases and gets farther from zero.

• The percent error stays the same.

• The percent error fluctuates randomly.

Open Ended

How can you use proportional reasoning to determine the probability of random events in a probability experiment?

Multiple Choice

What is the difference between theoretical probability and experimental probability?

• Theoretical probability is based on expected outcomes, while experimental probability is based on actual results.

• Theoretical probability is always higher than experimental probability.

• Experimental probability is calculated before an experiment, while theoretical probability is calculated after.

• Theoretical probability does not use data, while experimental probability does not use models.