Judgmental Forecasting

Which of the following is NOT a Delphi caracteristique?

• Anonymity

• Role playing

• Statistical Response

• Feedback

Is that an undershot?

• Yes

• No

Which of the following is NOT a judgmental forecasting method?

• Delphi

• Analogies

• Simple Judgement

• Gamification

If you toss a coin 10 times and it lands heads up every time, what are the chances it will land heads up if you toss it again?

• 10%

• 90%

• 50%

• 100%

Participants observed a roulette wheel that was predetermined to stop on either 10 or 65. Participants were then asked to guess the percentage of the United Nations that were African nations. Participants whose wheel stopped on 10 guessed lower values (25% on average) than participants whose wheel stopped at 65 (45% on average). Which of the cognitive bias is presented?

• Misconceptions of Chance

• Anchoring

• Insensitivity to sample size

• Biases of imaginability

• Retrievability

What is a superforecaster?

• A Superforecaster is marvel villain.

• A Superforecaster is an expert who is specialized in the stock market and makes forecasts of high accuracy.

• A Superforecaster is a fortune-teller.

• A Superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that prove to be consistently more accurate than those made by others.

Which of the following is a step of Structure analogies?

• Write down percentages of analogies

• Feedback

• Role playing

• Anonymity

Which of the following is NOT a type of forecasting?

• Statistical Forecasting

• Cognitive Biases

• Budget Forecasting

• Judgemental Forecasting