Getting to the Matrix

Uncertainties must each be unique and distinct

• True

• False

Civilizational foresight

(select all that apply)

• forces people to think long-term

• takes future generations serious

• learns toward sustainability

• Looks beyond current interests

Worldbuilding

• focuses on physical attributes of imaginary worlds

• constructs imaginary worlds

• Requires specialized hardware and prototyping equipment

Transition design

• must be included in all scenario planning projects

• defines how to get from now to a desired future

• answers the question of what the final state of something looks like

Uncertainties used to drive a scenario matrix should be unique and divergent because

• You could tell stories if they weren't

• We want to tell the most expansive stories possible

• People wouldn't connect to the stories

• The matrix would be hard to document

Coherence in scenario planning ensures

• that all the uncertainties make sense

• the scenario plans has internal logical consistency

• scenario titles work together as a whole

• is a standardized test that can be applied to a scenario to see if it works or not

Uncertainties should never

• force people to doubt their assumptions

• include a suggestion of a scenario value

• be specific and relatable

• complement other uncertainties

When writing scenario narratives the uncertainties that are not the matrix drivers

• provide context but are not mentioned by name

• should be considered characters in the narratives

• should be discarded

• end up on a list for people to read about

Backcasting

• looks at history to inform futures

• facilitates imagining how a future might happen

• ties uncertainties to historical realities

• ensures that futures are accurate and predictable

Scenario matrices

• evolve from a number of possible options with the best narrative framework winning

• always evolve from a single matrix

• are easy to see once the voting on uncertainties is complete

• don't need to be tested, they just are what they are