Unit 4: Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes Risk Factors

Risk Factor: Situations of armed conflict or other forms of instability

Situations that place a State under stress and generate an environment conducive to atrocity crimes.

• Common

• War Crimes

• Crimes Against Humanity

• Genocide

Risk Factor: Record of serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law

Past or current serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, particularly if assuming an early pattern of conduct, and including those amounting to atrocity crimes, that have not been prevented, punished or adequately addressed and, as a result, create a risk of further violations.

• Common

• War Crimes

• Crimes Against Humanity

• Genocide

Risk Factor: Weakness of State structures

Circumstances that negatively affect the capacity of a State to prevent or halt atrocity crimes.

• Common

• War Crimes

• Crimes Against Humanity

• Genocide

Risk Factor: Motives or incentives

Reasons, aims or drivers that justify the use of violence against protected groups, populations or individuals, including by actors outside of State borders.

• Common

• War Crimes

• Crimes Against Humanity

• Genocide

Risk Factor: Capacity to commit atrocity crimes

Conditions that indicate the ability of relevant actors to commit atrocity crimes.

• Common

• War Crimes

• Crimes Against Humanity

• Genocide

Risk Factor: Absence of mitigating factors

Absence of elements that, if present, could contribute to preventing or to lessening the impact of serious acts of violence against protected groups, populations or individuals.

• Common

• War Crimes

• Crimes Against Humanity

• Genocide

Risk Factor: Enabling circumstances or preparatory action

Events or measures, whether gradual or sudden, which provide an environment conducive to the commission of atrocity crimes, or which suggest a trajectory towards their perpetration.

• Common

• War Crimes

• Crimes Against Humanity

• Genocide

Risk Factor: Triggering factors

Events or circumstances that, even if seemingly unrelated to atrocity crimes, may seriously exacerbate existing conditions or may spark their onset.

• Common

• War Crimes

• Crimes Against Humanity

• Genocide

Risk Factor: Intergroup tensions or patterns of discrimination against protected groups

Past or present conduct that reveals serious prejudice against protected groups and that creates stress in the relationship among groups or with the State, generating an environment conducive to atrocity crimes.

• Common

• War Crimes

• Crimes Against Humanity

• Genocide

Risk Factor: Signs of an intent to destroy in whole or in part a protected group

Facts or circumstances that suggest an intent, by action or omission, to destroy all or part of a protected group based on its national, ethnical, racial or religious identity, or the perception of this identity.

• Common

• War Crimes

• Crimes Against Humanity

• Genocide