Forecast Combination

Forecast Combination

University

15 Qs

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Forecast Combination

Forecast Combination

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University

Practice Problem

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15 questions

Show all answers

1.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION

30 sec • 1 pt

What is the main motivation for combining forecasts?

To improve predictive accuracy when models are likely mis-specified

To increase computational speed

To avoid using time series models

To avoid using economic theory altogether

2.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION

30 sec • 1 pt

Which early paper is considered seminal in the development of forecast combination theory?

Stock and Watson (2004)

Diebold and Mariano (1995)

Bates and Granger (1969)

Box and Jenkins (1970)

3.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION

30 sec • 1 pt

In a simple average combination method, what is the main advantage?

It eliminates all bias

It avoids estimation error since weights are imposed rather than estimated

It always outperforms all other methods

It uses estimated optimal weights

4.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION

30 sec • 1 pt

The “forecast combination puzzle” refers to which finding?

Simple averages often outperform more complex methods

Sophisticated methods always outperform simple averages

Complex models are always better than naive ones

Weighted averages are useless in practice

5.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION

30 sec • 1 pt

Which combination method addresses outlier forecasts by excluding extremes?

Simple average

Trimmed mean

Inverse MSE

OLS regression

6.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION

30 sec • 1 pt

In the Inverse MSE method, how are weights determined?

By expert judgment

Equally for all models

Proportional to the inverse of the model’s MSE

By the rank of MSE values

7.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION

30 sec • 1 pt

Which method uses weights proportional to the inverse of the forecast models’ rank?

Simple average

Trimmed mean

Inverse Rank

OLS regression

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