Why You Probably Can’t Predict Your Own Happiness

The video discusses affective forecasting, the tendency to mispredict emotional reactions to future events. It highlights common errors like impact bias and focusing illusion, which skew our emotional predictions. Strategies to improve these predictions include considering context and using surrogates. The video emphasizes that our emotional responses are often less intense than anticipated, offering comfort in uncertain situations.

What is affective forecasting?

• Predicting the weather

• Estimating future emotions

• Planning financial investments

• Scheduling future events

What is impact bias?

• The tendency to accurately predict future emotions

• The tendency to underestimate the impact of future events

• The tendency to ignore future events

• The tendency to overestimate the intensity of future emotions

How does being in love affect predictions about breakups?

• It makes people indifferent to breakups

• It makes predictions less accurate

• It has no effect on predictions

• It makes predictions more accurate

What is the focusing illusion?

• The tendency to focus on one aspect and ignore others

• The belief that nothing is important

• The skill of predicting future events accurately

• The ability to focus on multiple tasks

How can using surrogates help in affective forecasting?

• By providing financial advice

• By offering emotional support

• By giving insights into others' experiences

• By predicting weather changes