Maybank: 10Y Treasury Yield Below 3.5% By 1H 2023

The transcript discusses the cautious market outlook due to inflation and Fed rate expectations. It highlights the dollar's recent trends and the resilience of the US economy, despite rising consumer credit levels. The conversation shifts to corporate earnings, noting a decline in positive surprises and potential growth risks. Treasury yields are analyzed, with a focus on the 10-year yield's volatility. The discussion concludes with a look at China's market, its reopening, and the impact of the Adani issue on Indian equities.

What is the current peak rate penciled in for the US Fed, and what could influence a change in this expectation?

• 5% to 5.25%, influenced by inflation data

• 6% to 6.25%, influenced by trade balance

• 4.5% to 4.75%, influenced by employment data

• 5.5% to 5.75%, influenced by GDP growth

What recent trend has been observed in the US dollar's performance?

• It has been declining steadily without recovery.

• It was sold off but recently rebounded.

• It has been consistently rising over the past year.

• It has been stable with no significant changes.

What is the current state of the US job market according to the transcript?

• High unemployment and low wage growth

• 50-year low unemployment and strong wage growth

• Increasing unemployment and stagnant wages

• Stable unemployment with decreasing wages

What is the expected trend for US corporate earnings in the near future?

• Earnings are expected to fluctuate without a clear trend.

• Earnings are expected to decline.

• Earnings are expected to remain stable.

• Earnings are expected to increase significantly.

What is the outlook for 10-year US Treasury yields according to the transcript?

• They are expected to trend lower.

• They are expected to fluctuate wildly.

• They are expected to remain stable.

• They are expected to rise significantly.

How is China's economic reopening perceived in terms of investment opportunities?

• It is seen as a negative development for investments.

• It is seen as a positive opportunity due to inexpensive valuations.

• It is seen as a risky opportunity due to high valuations.

• It is seen as having no impact on investments.

What impact has the Adani issue had on Indian stocks?

• It has had no impact on the Sensex.

• It has kept the Sensex relatively flat.

• It has caused a significant decline in the Sensex.

• It has caused the Sensex to rise sharply.