Societe Generale on China Trade, Lockdowns

The transcript discusses the economic impact of the Shanghai lockdown, highlighting a downward revision to 4.3% growth. It examines the Chinese government's toolkit, including monetary, credit, and fiscal policies, and the challenges posed by the zero-tolerance COVID policy. The potential for economic recovery is contingent on lifting lockdowns and increasing vaccination rates among the elderly. The transcript also explores the implications for currency depreciation due to weakened export growth and supply chain disruptions.

What is the revised economic growth rate for China after the Shanghai lockdown?

• 5.0%

• 3.8%

• 4.3%

• 4.8%

What is the main factor that could hinder the effectiveness of China's economic easing tools?

• Rising unemployment

• Lack of foreign investment

• Zero tolerance lockdowns

• High inflation rates

What is a crucial step for China to prepare for an economic rebound?

• Increasing government spending

• Reducing interest rates

• Boosting vaccination rates among the elderly

• Increasing exports

What is the expected trend for China's currency in the near term?

• Stability due to strong domestic demand

• Volatility due to political instability

• Appreciation due to increased exports

• Depreciation due to weakened export growth

What is one of the reasons for the expected depreciation of China's currency?

• Rising domestic inflation

• Increased foreign investment

• Narrowing yield differentials with the US

• Strengthening global demand