UBS: U.S. Inflation to Hit 8.5% in March

The video discusses the current state of equity markets, focusing on inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans. It examines the impact of oil prices on consumer spending and company earnings, highlighting mixed signals in various sectors. The video also addresses concerns about rate hikes and the dissonance between stock and bond markets, analyzing the implications of an inverted yield curve and its predictive power for recessions.

What is the expected peak inflation rate for March, and how is it expected to change in April?

• 8.5% in March, moderating to 6.5% in April

• 7.5% in March, moderating to 5.5% in April

• 6.5% in March, moderating to 4.5% in April

• 9.5% in March, moderating to 7.5% in April

How have airlines responded to higher fuel prices in terms of their guidance?

• They have maintained their guidance despite higher costs.

• They have lowered their guidance due to decreased demand.

• They have not changed their guidance at all.

• They have increased their guidance due to strong demand.

What is the significance of the inverted yield curve in economic predictions?

• It has historically signaled recessions but not their timing.

• It is a perfect indicator of economic growth.

• It accurately predicts the timing of recessions.

• It has no relevance to economic predictions.

What is the current valuation multiple for equities compared to November?

• 30.5 times in November, now 20.5 times

• 25.5 times in November, now 15.5 times

• 28.5 times in November, now 18.5 times

• 29.5 times in November, now 19.5 times

Which yield spread is considered a better indicator of recession risk?

• 2-year and 10-year spread

• 5-year and 10-year spread

• 10-year and 3-month spread

• 1-year and 5-year spread